Pulse Lab Jakarta - Horizon Scanning

MSMEs significantly contribute to the Indonesian economy but as the recent pandemic and global crisis proved, they are particularly vulnerable to negative shocks.

In uncertain times, it's essential to understand the potential issues that could affect MSMEs in the future.

What are the five drivers that can shape
the future landscape of MSMEs in Indonesia?

CLIMATE CHANGE:
THE RACE AGAINST TIME

INCREASING INTERNATIONAL
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS

PRECARIOUS WORK
IN THE GIG ECONOMY

THE RISE OF EMERGING SECTORS AND
SHIFT IN CONSUMER PREFERENCES

TECH AND BUSINESS:
NEW WAYS OF WORKING

a Horizon Scan the Futures of MSMEs in Indonesia

CLIMATE CHANGE:
THE RACE AGAINST TIME

Rising sea levels and global temperatures will cause disruptions in the natural ecosystem, potentially spark the emergence of new zoonotic diseases, and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. This will have varying impacts on MSMEs, from the supply chain to the demand for goods and services.

The need to offset the impacts of climate change is driving the demand for a circular economy as an alternative way of doing business. This creates new market opportunities and entry points for Indonesian MSMEs to adopt greener business practices.

What support systems need to be revisited to strengthen MSMEs and make them more resilient to future shocks? How can we best support MSMEs to adopt more environmentally friendly business practices in the future?

INCREASING INTERNATIONAL
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIPS

In response to climate change, Indonesia's participation in global economic cooperation on green infrastructure, water conservation and clean energy transition is increasing.

Additionally, increased dialogue between governments to promote the export of local products also opens new opportunities for MSMEs to expand to international markets.

How can we build a future-fit ecosystem that supports MSMEs and enables them to tap into and benefit from these opportunities?

THE RISE OF EMERGING SECTORS AND
SHIFT IN CONSUMER PREFERENCES

Increased awareness of climate change, social challenges, demographic changes have changed consumer behaviors. This has led to increasing demand for ethical products, and a rise in emerging sectors such as care work and the halal economy.

This offers many opportunities for Indonesian MSMEs to engage in new businesses and to access alternative financing schemes.

How can we build a future-fit ecosystem that supports MSMEs and enables them to tap into and benefit from these opportunities?

TECH AND BUSINESS:
NEW WAYS OF WORKING

In recent years, technology has grown rapidly. Automation, blockchain technology, the metaverse and Artificial Intelligence have shaped business operations in unexpected ways.

While MSMEs can use technology to boost their business, not all can equally benefit from it, signaling a widening digital gap.

Moreover, the risk of insufficient regulations on technology can negatively affect MSMEs and consumers, which can potentially create new challenges in the future.

How can we help MSMEs benefit from technological advancements? How can we bridge the digital divide amongst MSMEs, particularly microenterprises who are among the most vulnerable? How do we prioritize consumer protection for continued positive engagement in the digital economy?

PRECARIOUS WORK
IN THE GIG ECONOMY

The digital era has increased work in the gig economy, which offers MSMEs access to a larger pool of workers and flexibility in contracting.

However, gig workers are at risk of precarious working conditions due to the nature of their employment.

How do we envision less precarious and more secure conditions for gig workers to continue providing quality contributions to MSMEs?

OUR METHODOLOGY

We came to these five drivers by using the horizon scanning technique as one of the main Strategic Foresight tools. This is what the process looked like:

CONDUCTED OVER

a 6 month period

with 12 scanners

in 3 groups

Scanning and collecting data

unconventional articles and sources desk reviewed

interviews with experts and stakeholders from academia, the private sector, government agencies, NGOs and youth.

Interpretation and filtering

signals filtered, validating emerging signals through

FGD with

experts from academia, private sector, NGOs, and youth.

Rounds of iterative sensemaking to sharpen signals
and drivers and their potential future implications

Horizon Scanning: A Quick Introduction

What is Strategic Foresight: A Strategic Foresight Approach

EVENT SUMMARY

On 15 December 2022, the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas) and United Nations Global Pulse (UNGP) hosted the “Strategic Foresight: The Futures of MSMEs in Indonesia” joint report launch in Jakarta. The event successfully presented the results of the horizon scanning activity and generated discussions about the potential emerging issues that could possibly affect Indonesian MSMEs 10-20 years in the future. Around 100 representatives from various stakeholders including the Indonesian government, multilateral organizations, academia, NGOs and private institutions attended the event.

PHOTOS SUMMARY